“The Saudi-Iran Rapprochement: a beacon of hope or new power struggle”
Apparently on March 10th 2023, China seemed to have entered into anew era of global presence when it joined two rivals of Middle East for common strategic interests. Many political analysts termed it as breakthrough which could posit China as a global peace negotiator and will ultimately overtake US influence in Middle East which had developed over the years.
US administration has remained at the forefront of Peace negotiations, mediation and Arms supply even to this day to gulf countries and maintains a strong naval presence in the Persian gulf region and strait of Hormuz. The tides are turning surely into a more multi polar world with various existing realities of which, China’s primacy is a bit exaggerated.
To see it through another lens, after easing of tensions between Iranians and Saudis, there is a debate going on about the futures of various proxies of both rivals. Yemen, Syria ,Iraq , Lebanon just to name a few. These countries are torn apart by years of sectarian and civil wars mainly sponsored by Saudis and Iranians. Will both the arch rivals amicably surrender their strategic interests?
Nonetheless, Syria is brought back to Arab League after 12 years after its membership was terminated in 2011 when Bashar al Assad, the Syrian President committed war crimes against its own citizenry. This reconciliation is largely the outcome of Saudi-Iran Rapprochement. While, fighting in Yemen has ceased and various factions are brought to table for talks but no conclusive agreement on how to rebuild and govern the country is reached so far. One reason of this halt is long held suspicion of both rivals whether the other will standby its words and many other considerations.
Another significant aspect which should be mentioned here is the foreign policy choices of KSA after MBS has reigned the control of kingdom. MBS first served as defense minister and lodged a war against Houthis in Yemen and took many decisions towards reforms in Saudi Arabia. Muhammad bin Salam (MBS) is largely seen as a reformer and a leader with internal locus of control and high conceptual complexity. MBS began to make FP choices which started to pinch US administration. Growing cooperation with China in high technology and large infrastructural investment added insult to injury. US once a great friend of KSA and a security guarantor of country decided to pull out of Middle East and vacuum created was filled by a growing economic power China. MBS wanted a relatively independent foreign policy and aimed to get the best out of every deal he made.
Islamic Republic of Iran has endured years of economic sanctions by west and happened to be a hyper conservative political system with Supreme Leader being the source of all power in the country. The growing voices of liberal reforms and democracy are met by brutal repression and society is embracing its repercussions. JCPOA was a milestone agreement but with certain loopholes because it came into force in 2015 by Executive order of the President Obama not by ratification of US Senate. Trump administration broke the deal and provided a valid excuse to rapidly enrich uranium for nuclear weapons. There are back channel negotiations taking place between Iran and US on nuclear issue but nothing concrete has come to surface yet.
So, MBS and Ayatollah Ali khamene’i coincidentally stand at a point relative to their biological age. MBS is growing and have future ambitions for kingdom while Ayatollah is in 80s and could not promise much. MBS has 2030 vision for prospering KSA while Ayatollah might be thinking of making his son(Mujtaba khamene’i) a strong candidate of supreme leadership. Anyways, it has startling relevance to respective states. It is likely to be a compromised Rapprochement where China could have offered some investment as well as some big promises which will unfold as years to come. Meanwhile , both Iran and Saudis will push their strategic interests until relations are not granted De Jure Recognition.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/muhammad-ahmed-murtaza-860973274
