“ Iran is Flexing its Muscles in the region under the umbrella of tactical shift in her Foreign Policy: A Shuffle in Policy not Ideology”

The shift in Iran’s foreign policy which brought Normalization of relations between two heavyweights in the region is primarily a tactical move rather than a strategic one.

In a China brokered agreement both countries affirmed to principles of mutual respect, non intervention in internal affairs of each other and adherence to Charter of United Nations and Organization of Islamic Cooperation. These affirmations are promising in theory but practically both states had to shun many of their ongoing ventures to make this agreement a long lasting Peace initiative for the Middle East and wider Muslim World. The underlying factor for such a tactical shuffle in foreign policy is to carry out Iran’s strategic interests behind the curtains. Iran is resorting to different measures this time around by employing carrots(inducements) instead of sticks(Coercion) to secure its vital interests. Although Iran has not abandoned its all proxies which involves IRGC and Hezbollah. All this is done to give an impression of improving Iran’s foreign policy in relations to its immediate neighbors and wider world in general.

“It Should be kept in mind that Iran is not rethinking its ideological standing and Principal Stance rather it is just another way to carry out the business of International affairs”

Ebrahim Raisi’s Approach to project soft image of Iran:

Ebrahim Raisi, a hardliner Conservative and the most influential person in Iran after Ayatollah Ali khamene’i, is seeking to break the norm of his predecessor Conservative Presidents ( who tended to be more aggressive towards West and more inward looking in their foreign policy). Ebrahim Raisi is keeping his options open for cooperation with China,Russia, Africa and Latin America in awake of Western Economic sanctions which are draining the Iranian economy and fueling impoverishment in the society.

1. Ebrahim Raisi took a three day visit to Latin America and met with leaders whose countries were facing same economic hardships due to western sanctions and sought to enhance cooperation with them in order to mitigate the fallout of economic activity this year.
2. Raisi has also secured promises of mutual trade and interactions from various African Nations in exchange for Oil and energy.
3. Ebrahim Raisi’s government has covertly provided drones to Russian government and persisted with this policy for long.
4. Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian under the umbrella of normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia took a momentous visit to Gulf countries in June 2023 and broke the ice that was grown as a result of suspicion and mistrust among Arabs and Iranians.

Photo by Kyle Glenn on Unsplash

The Birth of New Pro-Iran Groups in Iraqi Arena:

The signs of tactical changes were apparent in terms of the changes
made to the formations and names of pro-Iran militias in Iraq. Certain formations were dismantled in response to repeated regional and international calls to end the intractable crises in Iraq. However, new ones were created with new names in Iranian spheres of influence in the country. Media outlets in June 2023 reported that the pro-Iranian Ashab al Kahf group promoted via the internet three new front groups against the US presence in Iraq. These three new formations are: the Seif Allah Brigades, the Karbala Brigades and Al-Sabireen Brigades. These new groups announced that they had entered a new stage of fighting which they called “the occupation,” meaning countering US military forces and intensifying fighting until these forces leave Iraq. They criticized Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al Sudani for setting a timetable for the US military withdrawal from Iraq. These new formations reflect the continuation of Iranian interference in the internal affairs of other countries through militias and proxies. Ashab al-Kahf was established in 2019 as a front group for pro-Iran armed militias and attacked US targets in Iraq, including troops, logistical support convoys, diplomatic headquarters and civilian training sites. However, it increased its attacks against US targets after the assassination of former Quds Force Chief Qassem Soleimani and the deputy head of the Popular Mobilization Forces Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis near Baghdad International Airport in early January 2020. It sought retaliation for Soleimani’s killing by exerting pressure on the United States to withdraw its forces from Iraq. This group claimed responsibility for violent armed attacks against US targets, either alone or in cooperation with the Iraqi Hezbollah Brigades or Asa’ib Ahl
al-Haq. WWW.RASANAH-IIIS.ORG

Future Outlook:

Owing to recent developments, we are only witnessing a ceremonial proceedings which are just to ease the years of mistrust and grievances between the two giants. KSA and Iran are in a compromised agreement which could only turn into a full scale cooperation until both set a threshold for minimum intervention in internal affairs of each other.

Iran’s political system is so based that ideology is entrenched in every aspect of the system, and to set aside the Founding principles of Islamic Revolution in 1979 will require a whole series of reforms both in state apparatus and society. The over-emphasized Institution of Supreme Leader and IRGC always keep on coming at you and the tussle between conservatives and reformers (Moderators) who run country administratively do no good to society and economy. Hezbollah, Quds Force and their affiliate militias have strong say in policy matters of Iran through their influential Generals.

Iran’s successful backing of Assad regime in Syria for more than a decade and its proxies all over the Middle East are not only strategically motivated but also ideologically driven which could not be shunned in a matters of few months. So, Middle East will remain a center of gravity for International affairs due to its Geo-strategic location and the regional Heavyweights who pursue entirely different interests based on ideologies and worldview. BRICS Plus will be a great platform where both KSA and Iran can accommodate their differences.

Photo by Nick Fewings on Unsplash

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