G20 summit and its key takeaways for the Middle East Giants : Opportunities & Cautious Optimism.
Saudi Arabia and Israel have been involved in back channel negotiations and many success stories have surfaced over time. US is keen to broker a Peace and Diplomatic breakthrough in the region but Biden’s policy of “No deal , no crisis” is starting to backfire as China has emerged to replace the US as deal broker and big brother in the Middle East.
Muhammad Bin Salman (MBS): The power wielder of Middle East.
Many analysts were of the opinion that MBS could be a potential reformer in the Conservative Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and a man with firm grip on the relations with neighboring Arab countries. As it turned out to be, MBS has proved to be much more Reformist than anticipated. His Vision Future 2030 and many ambitious projects are underway as he seeks to enhance the role and influence of KSA in International affairs. G20 summit concluded in New Delhi, India on September 10th brought about many MOUs, Inclusion of AU in G20 and a counterweight project to China’s BRI which is destined to enhance connectivity, technology sharing and boost economy between India and European Union via Middle Eastern sea ports and railway terminals. Although this project is just at the level of MOU but many project it to replace the BRI and could serve as a base for diplomatic and economic cooperation between Saudi Arabia and Israel. Thus, envisioning a normalization between the two in near future.
Although MBS has taken some momentous measures towards liberalization of his country and economy but he knows diplomatic relations on pronounced level would endanger his Position both within and without the Islamic World. So, he is skillfully toying with policy choices giving an impression of immediate normalization with Israel to West but knows well which card to place where.
Connectivity, Economy and Technology: Indicators of Cautious Optimistism
The Project of Connectivity by ships and railroads between India and European Union by utilizing Sea ports of Gulf Countries UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel has made it into headlines and many cautious optimistic views started to float that the focal role of middle east in all this and particularly KSA would Ultimately lead to a stage of Open dealings with Israel but reality is a bit different. Israel is passing through a tumultuous domestic period where Judicial reforms and other agendas have overtook other matters of significant importance. While Nethanyahu, Prime Minister of Israel would love to have a strong friend and neighbor who would open up the gates of Muslim World to him and his country.
According to a research survey conducted by Arab Barometer between October 2021 and November 2022 about normalization of realtions with Israel in 11 most populous countries of MENA, the result indicated only one in five people support normalization of relations. While others were against it. Map: Which MENA countries have diplomatic ties with Israel? https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/9/15/map-which-mena-countries-have-diplomatic-ties-with-israel
Biden’s relectance to deal with Middle East Affairs sufficiently has barred the influence and authority of US in the Middle East which was reflected in Biden’s visit to KSA where MBS’s cold gestures made a strong statement of deteriorating relations between both.
Final Words:
Geo-strategic realities and priorities vary from time to time given the International and regional dynamics in mind. Middle East has the potential to consume the shocks of upheavals both at domestic and regional stage because Gulf states and Wider Middle Eastern states are transforming their economies from oil based to business oriented and tourism hubspots. Arabs are viewing other countries through lens of business and trade not through Pan Islamic Lens. So, it is no wonder that we may happen to see some big developments within the span of few years. We never know in this fast moving and ever evolving world of Geo-Economics and ambitious plans of world leaders.
https://www.linkedin.com/in/muhammad-ahmed-murtaza-860973274
